The Futures Library is a curated reference point for foresight, scenario and strategy work from a wide variety of sources intended, over time, to create a definitive source of in-depth material. The purpose is to provide an easy reference or index of the most important public domain output. Many of the documents filed here represent conventional, reference perspectives. In other words, they explore ‘high impact, certain’ outcomes over the next ten, twenty or more years.
Even so, they have predictive value, or indicate a possible direction. Those that converge on single outcomes over the long term are best seen not as forecasts, but as ‘single scenarios’ amongst many.
Another way of seeing them is as possible imagined future worlds, expressed in a variety of narrative forms. These narratives often compete, a key indicator of deep uncertainty. Some are public relations exercises, intended to influence the public, investors, or policy makers. Others are state of the art projections and forecasts, using the latest simulation techniques and expert opinion.