Title: Trump’s National Security Strategy: built on flawed assumptions
Approx. Reading Time: 9 minutes
Author: Mat Burrows
The Trump National Security Strategy shows a certain frankness in acknowledging the limits of American power, but Mat Burrows argues it fails to explain how a world without a hegemon could remain stable. Its rejection of multilateral institutions leaves unanswered who will protect the global commons or how the US can defend its interests without allies and friends. Nor does it show how the US and China can coexist when elites on both sides seek dominance. With no guardrails proposed to keep competition from tipping into conflict, the strategy reflects Trump’s tendency to dismantle rather than build a foreign-policy approach with bipartisan support.
Read EssayWars today rarely end in decisive military victory, and the conflict in Ukraine is unlikely to be an exception. If it is resolved at all, it will be through diplomacy rather than force. Indeed, despite acute tensions between Europe and both Russia and the US, the odds of a diplomatic outcome are increasing. The terms of any agreement could profoundly shape Europe’s future and have significant geopolitical consequences.
Although the decline of natural ecosystems continues, there are an increasing number of positive stories of restored habitats and species in many regions around the world. If social movements gain momentum, forcing governments to fulfil their pledges and put in place the necessary policies, legislation and funding, we could see, by 2050, ecosystems restored, plants and animals flourishing again, and humans living in harmony with nature.
US stock-market capitalisation now stands at around $70 trillion, or 225 percent of GDP and over 60 percent of global equity value. A host of factors could trigger a major correction, tipping the country’s economy into recession. The world’s unusually heavy exposure to US equities means any downturn would be transmitted worldwide, underscoring the risks of depending too heavily on a single country’s economic cycle and politics.
Beneath the Commission’s optimistic forecasts lies a stark reality: Europe’s economic core is weakening. Germany remains stuck in stagnation, France faces deepening fiscal and political strain, and Europe’s industrial base faces an increasingly existential challenge from Chinese competition. A sense of decline now prevails, yet the reforms needed to restore competitiveness are stalled by political resistance and an EU governance system far too slow for the scale of the challenge.
Title: The COP That Burned Down
Approx. Reading Time: 8 minutes
Author: Laurie Laybourn
COP30 did little to accelerate climate action, but it is nonetheless celebrated as a multilateral success in challenging times. This contradiction stems from the strategy established by the 2015 Paris Agreement: to induce action not through legal requirements but using norms and expectations. However, this strategy is unravelling because norms are losing their power, and because it has been impossible to deliver material action of the scale and pace needed. Climate destabilisation will now reach the global scale. Laurie Laybourn shows why a new strategy will be necessary to guide international cooperation in this emerging context.
Read EssayTitle: Ukraine, Russia and Europe’s Security
Approx. Reading Time: 9 minutes
Author: Adam Thomson
Russia’s gains in 2025 have been small, and the war has become one of draining attrition—military, economic and political—for Ukraine, Russia and Europe alike. Each side still believes time is on its side, so the conflict remains fragile yet sustainable, with no decisive breakthrough likely in 2026. Ukrainian strikes and Western support can raise costs but will not break Russian resolve. The key variable is President Trump, who seeks a peace deal he can claim as a personal success. He might yet pull-off a political deal and ceasefire, which could be transformational. However, Adam Thomson argues that the most likely outcome is a continued stand-off, with negotiation and conflict running in parallel.
Read EssayTitle: America’s Democratic Decline
Approx. Reading Time: 10 minutes
Author: Mat Burrows
American democracy has been in decline since the 2010s, but the past nine months of Donald Trump’s second Presidency have sharply accelerated the slide. The situation has reached a critical point. In the wake of the recent assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, the Trump Administration is threatening to suppress “liberal” groups and appears poised to infringe on Americans’ constitutional right to free speech. Mat Burrows argues that deepening polarization will not be easily reversed, even if the next president—Republican or Democrat—pledges to represent all Americans.
Read EssayTitle: Trump’s Climate Assault
Approx. Reading Time: 9 minutes
Author: Laurie Laybourn
The Trump administration is mounting a sweeping assault on US climate action, dismantling federal science functions and rolling back regulations that cut emissions and support green technology. Laurie Laybourn argues this is profoundly inimical to the country’s interests: the administration is doing nearly everything possible to leave the nation unprepared for what lies ahead. By gutting climate research and action, it also strips away adaptation, emergency planning and early warning systems. Those opposing this strategy must show it for what it is—an abdication of duty—and stand as the guardians of the United States’ future.
Read EssayWhat emergencies? Why do world leaders fail to recognise and act on warnings of existential risk in everything from climate and biosphere failure to runaway artificial intelligence and the collapse of the world order? Why do the stories so often end with ‘too little, too late’? Time to face reality and frame early warning as inter-systemic threats and runaway, cascading failure.
The rapid rise of decentralised far-right networks—driven by platform algorithms that amplify misinformation, particularly on Elon Musk’s X—is transforming political mobilisation. Online networks now create parallel information spheres, elevating fringe figures into influencers and rapidly organising large real-world events. With governments wary of regulating platforms, mainstream politics is increasingly unable to keep pace, though Zohran Mamdani’s New York mayoral campaign shows how positive digital engagement can counter toxic online ecosystems.
There is growing realisation that the AI investment bubble will at some point burst, sending shockwaves through the fragile, highly interconnected global financial system. If they do, chances are the global collaboration that characterised the ‘rescue’ from the crises of 2007-2008 will not deliver a safety net. What is less well understood, however, is that AI mania is more than financial. The underlying technology problems of the dominant form of generative AI and LLMs can also be framed as bubble narratives.
With revenues weak and spending demands rising, intensifying competition for capital could push up borrowing costs and deepen fiscal pressures. In response, governments may resort to debt monetisation and tighter control over capital, as suggested by growing pressure on central bank independence. This could evolve into financial repression—through interest rate caps, mandated debt holdings or directed credit—potentially requiring capital controls to prevent outflows to higher-yielding or less regulated markets.
EU climate leadership hit a low ebb this summer, with leaders unable to agree on new Paris Agreement targets even as Europe faced record-breaking climate impacts. These events make clear that Europe must chart a new course if it is to confront the realities of a world beyond 1.5°C. Climate leadership must now focus on protecting people from today’s escalating dangers, while also working to prevent even greater impacts in the future.
Amid climate change, resource scarcity and growing populations, technological advances are driving sustainable water management systems that supply, treat and recycle water closer to the point of use. Across much of the world, these more efficient systems are replacing outdated centralised infrastructures, cutting waste in cities and while extending fresh water access to remote rural communities.
For much of the 21st century, it was assumed that cultural change could steer economies onto a more sustainable path. That momentum has now stalled. As climate impacts intensify, a backlash driven by fossil fuel and agribusiness lobbies, allied with political forces and amplified by social media, is reshaping policy. The danger is not only that climate action is delayed, but also that faith in democratic institutions will erode, at a time when long-term thinking and sustainability are most needed.
Most firms remain locked in short-termism and fixated on quarterly results and immediate shareholder returns, despite clear evidence that companies driven by long-term perspectives outperform. This creates a profound mismatch between the narrow timescale of business and the global challenges we face, which demand long-term thinking and decade-long strategies. Overcoming short-termism will require global reform of corporate governance, including a redefinition of fiduciary duty to prioritise long-term resilience.
Conventional views of geopolitics and conflict discount the influence of fantasy and folly. Imagined futures, myth, illusion, performance and propaganda seem far removed from the brutal realities of military action and coercive power. Yet fantasy and folly are central to the history of political leadership. The four forms identified by Barbara Tuchman—tyranny, excessive ambition, incompetence or decadence, and perversity—are all in play over the war in Ukraine.
When Washington was led by political forces committed to democracy, Europe’s overwhelming dependence on US digital infrastructure was complacent but understandable. The current trajectory of US politics means it is now a major security risk. It is no longer unthinkable that Washington could wield the threat of cutting off critical services to coerce Europe.
Weaponised interdependence is not new in finance, trade or economics: the US has long exerted power through the dollar and clearing systems. What is new is that this leverage now extends across intelligence sharing, weapons systems, space, digital media and AI. Also new is the blurring of lines between the Trump administration and Big Tech in promoting a world “running on the backbone of American technology.” As the backlash gathers momentum, we may have reached peak interdependence.
Power generation is increasingly shifting closer to the point of consumption, as countries and communities worldwide pursue greater energy security, reduced reliance on fossil fuels, and lower electricity costs. This trend is driven by the rapid expansion of affordable renewable energy—particularly wind and solar—and is set to accelerate as costs continue to fall, technologies mature, and supportive policies gain momentum.
The Trump administration’s authoritarianism, isolationism and fiscal mismanagement have sparked fears that it could resort to capital controls. The implications for the City of London would depend on how the rest of the world responds—whether financial globalisation could adapt and continue without the US playing such a dominant role, or whether it would trigger financial regionalisation.
The move to produce more of our food closer to home is growing all over the world. Instigated by governments at a national level and from the grassroots-up in small rural and city communities, it is supported by a flow of technological innovations that make local and small-scale food production viable.
As the saying goes, wars are easy to start but hard to win. Israel and the US have scored a tactical success, but turning it into lasting security will be difficult. Iran has lost this battle but will do all it can to avoid losing the war. Second- and third-order effects will ripple through the global system, impacting growth, geopolitical tensions and stability.
Foreigners were long relaxed about putting capital into dollar assets, believing that US Treasuries were risk-free, that the Federal Reserve would remain free of political interference and always able to act as the global lender of last resort, and that US assets would deliver superior returns. Trump’s second administration challenges each of these assumptions.
