Agenda-Setting Foresight

With the consensus over China’s economic prospects now firmly downbeat, attention is shifting towards the country’s political outlook. Under Xi Jinping, China has moved sharply to the authoritarian left in terms of its economic policies and to the nationalist right in international relations, unsettling investors and alarming foreign powers. George Magnus argues China will find it harder to project power as these factors combine.

In a new introduction to Dark Ages, one of our three long-standing reference scenarios, Peter Kingsley explores how the world faces cascading geostrategic and socio-economic failures stretching out over the next decade and beyond. This is despite signs of real-world political urgency, and accelerating investment and innovation aimed at cutting emissions and slowing biosphere destruction.

Kieron O’Hara argues that the more exciting implementations of blockchain technology, with the libertarian valorisation of their open networks, are products of a particular techno-ideology. As a result, they are problematic and face formidable obstacles. However, less ambitious blockchain—which are closer to traditional databases—are far more useful for business.

Many political leaders and regulators frame disinformation as a technological problem that can only be solved by technological means and by curbing ‘big tech’. Peter Kingsley explores another possibility: what if disinformation is the modus operandi of some world leaders intent on causing chaos?

India and Pakistan’s recent heatwave is the latest sign we are entering a new era of chaotic, systemic risk brought about by the worsening environmental crisis, argues Laurie Laybourn-Langton. The continued failure to reduce global environmental harms means this will only intensify, threatening our collective ability to execute the rapid climate transition needed. Faster, better mitigation and adaptation strategies are essential.

Simon Tilford argues that Russia’s war against Ukraine is unlikely to slow climate transformation in developed countries, but could put paid to a global climate change agreement and hit international trade and investment. Developing countries could conclude that they cannot afford to invest heavily in transformation, resulting in a world of clear climate winners and losers, with rising inequalities—of economic and in terms of climate security—leading to mass migration.

The tragedy of the Russia-Ukraine war is only beginning and may escalate beyond the collective control of world leaders. Peter Kingsley explores how individual and collective failures of imagination lie behind recent catastrophic events, as they have in history. In a new kind of ‘hybrid’ war characterised by extreme complexity, uncertainty and speed, the risks of misinterpretation, miscalculation and human folly have never been greater.

A retreat from globalisation is sometimes portrayed in apocalyptic terms. However, not all forms of openness matter equally. There can be a trade-off between openness and the ability of government to meet domestic demands, such as for security and fairness, or rapid climate transformation. How much openness is essential, and how much we could live without, is one of the most pressing questions of our time. Simon Tilford explores the issue by looking at trade in goods and services, as well as flows of capital, data and people.