Title: Ukraine, Russia and Europe’s Security
Approx. Reading Time: 9 minutes
Author: Adam Thomson
Russia’s gains in 2025 have been small, and the war has become one of draining attrition—military, economic and political—for Ukraine, Russia and Europe alike. Each side still believes time is on its side, so the conflict remains fragile yet sustainable, with no decisive breakthrough likely in 2026. Ukrainian strikes and Western support can raise costs but will not break Russian resolve. The key variable is President Trump, who seeks a peace deal he can claim as a personal success. He might yet pull-off a political deal and ceasefire, which could be transformational. However, Adam Thomson argues that the most likely outcome is a continued stand-off, with negotiation and conflict running in parallel.
Read EssayThere is growing realisation that the AI investment bubble will at some point burst, sending shockwaves through the fragile, highly interconnected global financial system. If they do, chances are the global collaboration that characterised the ‘rescue’ from the crises of 2007-2008 will not deliver a safety net. What is less well understood, however, is that AI mania is more than financial. The underlying technology problems of the dominant form of generative AI and LLMs can also be framed as bubble narratives.
France and Germany have long formed the core of Europe’s economic and military weight, together accounting for nearly half of EU GDP and driving major integration steps from the single market to the euro. Today, however, the partnership is strained by mounting domestic economic and political pressures in both countries. If the Franco-German engine stalls, Europe could slide into institutional paralysis, weakening its voice abroad and derailing further integration and strategic autonomy.
With revenues weak and spending demands rising, intensifying competition for capital could push up borrowing costs and deepen fiscal pressures. In response, governments may resort to debt monetisation and tighter control over capital, as suggested by growing pressure on central bank independence. This could evolve into financial repression—through interest rate caps, mandated debt holdings or directed credit—potentially requiring capital controls to prevent outflows to higher-yielding or less regulated markets.
EU climate leadership hit a low ebb this summer, with leaders unable to agree on new Paris Agreement targets even as Europe faced record-breaking climate impacts. These events make clear that Europe must chart a new course if it is to confront the realities of a world beyond 1.5°C. Climate leadership must now focus on protecting people from today’s escalating dangers, while also working to prevent even greater impacts in the future.
Title: America’s Democratic Decline
Approx. Reading Time: 10 minutes
Author: Mat Burrows
American democracy has been in decline since the 2010s, but the past nine months of Donald Trump’s second Presidency have sharply accelerated the slide. The situation has reached a critical point. In the wake of the recent assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, the Trump Administration is threatening to suppress “liberal” groups and appears poised to infringe on Americans’ constitutional right to free speech. Mat Burrows argues that deepening polarization will not be easily reversed, even if the next president—Republican or Democrat—pledges to represent all Americans.
Read EssayTitle: Trump’s Climate Assault
Approx. Reading Time: 9 minutes
Author: Laurie Laybourn
The Trump administration is mounting a sweeping assault on US climate action, dismantling federal science functions and rolling back regulations that cut emissions and support green technology. Laurie Laybourn argues this is profoundly inimical to the country’s interests: the administration is doing nearly everything possible to leave the nation unprepared for what lies ahead. By gutting climate research and action, it also strips away adaptation, emergency planning and early warning systems. Those opposing this strategy must show it for what it is—an abdication of duty—and stand as the guardians of the United States’ future.
Read EssayTitle: Shrinking Glaciers, Water Scarcity, Lives at Risk
Approx. Reading Time: 7 minutes
Author: Professor David Drewery
Glaciers and ice sheets are melting at alarming rates due to rising global temperatures, threatening water supplies and accelerating sea-level rise, says Professor David Drewery. Regions such as the Himalayas, Andes, Alps and polar zones face profound environmental and human impacts such as glacial lake outburst floods, coastal erosion and ecosystem collapse. Amid continued government inaction, the UN designated 2025 as the International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation to try draw attention to the crisis and prompt overdue responses. Without urgent leadership, many communities may face adaptation—or retreat.
Read EssayTitle: Imagined Futures: competing visions, power games
Approx. Reading Time: 9 minutes
Author: Peter Kingsley
The common assumption is that imagination is individual and private. The more important question, argues Peter Kingsley, is the role of the cultural and collective imagination, which dominates everything from geostrategic security to climate action and technological innovation. Imagined futures are cultural realities that shape decisions in the here and now. They are primary drivers of war, conflict, competition and finance. The deeper questions are: who sets the agenda, and whose future is imagined?
Read EssayAmid climate change, resource scarcity and growing populations, technological advances are driving sustainable water management systems that supply, treat and recycle water closer to the point of use. Across much of the world, these more efficient systems are replacing outdated centralised infrastructures, cutting waste in cities and while extending fresh water access to remote rural communities.
For much of the 21st century, it was assumed that cultural change could steer economies onto a more sustainable path. That momentum has now stalled. As climate impacts intensify, a backlash driven by fossil fuel and agribusiness lobbies, allied with political forces and amplified by social media, is reshaping policy. The danger is not only that climate action is delayed, but also that faith in democratic institutions will erode, at a time when long-term thinking and sustainability are most needed.
Most firms remain locked in short-termism and fixated on quarterly results and immediate shareholder returns, despite clear evidence that companies driven by long-term perspectives outperform. This creates a profound mismatch between the narrow timescale of business and the global challenges we face, which demand long-term thinking and decade-long strategies. Overcoming short-termism will require global reform of corporate governance, including a redefinition of fiduciary duty to prioritise long-term resilience.
Conventional views of geopolitics and conflict discount the influence of fantasy and folly. Imagined futures, myth, illusion, performance and propaganda seem far removed from the brutal realities of military action and coercive power. Yet fantasy and folly are central to the history of political leadership. The four forms identified by Barbara Tuchman—tyranny, excessive ambition, incompetence or decadence, and perversity—are all in play over the war in Ukraine.
When Washington was led by political forces committed to democracy, Europe’s overwhelming dependence on US digital infrastructure was complacent but understandable. The current trajectory of US politics means it is now a major security risk. It is no longer unthinkable that Washington could wield the threat of cutting off critical services to coerce Europe.
Weaponised interdependence is not new in finance, trade or economics: the US has long exerted power through the dollar and clearing systems. What is new is that this leverage now extends across intelligence sharing, weapons systems, space, digital media and AI. Also new is the blurring of lines between the Trump administration and Big Tech in promoting a world “running on the backbone of American technology.” As the backlash gathers momentum, we may have reached peak interdependence.
Power generation is increasingly shifting closer to the point of consumption, as countries and communities worldwide pursue greater energy security, reduced reliance on fossil fuels, and lower electricity costs. This trend is driven by the rapid expansion of affordable renewable energy—particularly wind and solar—and is set to accelerate as costs continue to fall, technologies mature, and supportive policies gain momentum.
The Trump administration’s authoritarianism, isolationism and fiscal mismanagement have sparked fears that it could resort to capital controls. The implications for the City of London would depend on how the rest of the world responds—whether financial globalisation could adapt and continue without the US playing such a dominant role, or whether it would trigger financial regionalisation.
The move to produce more of our food closer to home is growing all over the world. Instigated by governments at a national level and from the grassroots-up in small rural and city communities, it is supported by a flow of technological innovations that make local and small-scale food production viable.
As the saying goes, wars are easy to start but hard to win. Israel and the US have scored a tactical success, but turning it into lasting security will be difficult. Iran has lost this battle but will do all it can to avoid losing the war. Second- and third-order effects will ripple through the global system, impacting growth, geopolitical tensions and stability.
Foreigners were long relaxed about putting capital into dollar assets, believing that US Treasuries were risk-free, that the Federal Reserve would remain free of political interference and always able to act as the global lender of last resort, and that US assets would deliver superior returns. Trump’s second administration challenges each of these assumptions.
From the archive: Jorge Luis Borges’ 1941 short story Garden of Forking Paths may seem an unusual metaphor for state-of-the-art approaches to simulating and navigating complex systems in 2023, but the story has credentials. Borges echoed Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle and both foreshadowed the ‘many worlds’ theories and the recent ‘simulation’ model of neuroscience that explains the realities of human experience and how we think about the future.
The current geopolitical moment is what statisticians call a “structural break”. It is rendering the forecasting models used by central banks, financial institutions and specialised firms largely useless. How should decision makers adjust to the global hegemon, predominant economic power and holder of the global reserve currency generating so much uncertainty?
Financial markets may not force the Trump administration to adopt a responsible economic policy agenda. Nor can the US economy flourish irrespective of the direction of the country’s politics. Many of its economic strengths are the product of political decisions and institutions that are now under threat. As a result, the days of US outperformance could be numbered.
According to the latest neuroscientific research, humans create models of the world and then scan for sources of shock. We are fine-tuned to minimise surprise and uncertainty. We simulate possible futures. There is, however, a fundamental problem. What works for individuals does not work at larger scales. This matters: the greatest challenges to humanity are global and collective. Unless and until we imagine new models, we face ever-increasing uncertainty.
The UK’s Advanced Research Agency (ARIA) has announced a major investment in early warning systems for climate tipping points. Such systems could spur the rapid decarbonisation needed, but with global temperatures breaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels sooner than expected, it is probably too late to prevent some tipping points being triggered. As a result, early warning systems also have an essential role to play in enabling preparation for the worst.
