There is a widening gap between the emerging ‘inter systemic’, tightly coupled nature of the risk landscape and understanding that threatens state security, corporate resilience and insurance—both in terms of underwriting and asset management. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the February 2022 report from the IPCC have deepened the risks of geostrategic security failures and environmental collapse. With ‘edge of chaos’ conditions comes opportunity. There will be a premium in bridging the ‘complexity gap’, in understanding fragile systems, in early warning systems and in hedging against the risks of cascading failures that have the potential to overwhelm regions, industry sectors and individual clients. Risk and client selection, as well as inventive predictive modelling, will be critical to competitive performance, particular in some of the scenarios that will shape the next decade.
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