Climate and cultural change, together with the widespread impacts of the war in Ukraine, will transform the risk landscape and attitudes to risk. In some scenarios, community-centric, ‘no-compromise’ sustainable development values will increase transparency and pressure on insurers to rapidly accelerate towards zero-carbon targets, defined by Scope3 regulation. This may, in the extreme, lead to calls to reduce underwriting support in high emissions sectors, withdraw investment and raise questions about license to operate. On the other hand, activists may recognise that insurers must play a vital role in driving a rapid transition by underwriting large-scale innovation and urgent structural change. The challenge for speciality insurers is to anticipate cultural tipping points and align with emerging client and wider societal values to minimise reputation and commercial risk.
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