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The global climate is entering a period of increasing volatility and potential inter-systemic, cascading collapse. This will create fundamental changes in the risk landscape that will shape all Convex markets. Regardless of cuts in emissions, many regions will be forced to adapt or retreat, triggering further large-scale geostrategic instability as the full inter-systemic impacts of the war in Ukraine play out. Some will find funding, others face crises. Some cities will confront the prospect that they will become uninhabitable over the long-term. In some scenarios, complexity and uncertainty will increase demand for insurance and re-insurance against complex risk. This will put a premium on predictive modelling and expert risk selection. In other scenarios and classes, insurance may become unaffordable or uneconomic.
